Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 96776.698012 102009.405507 107237.135671 112848.288953 118696.928759 124609.826611 131035.936153
2025-08-17 87628.235284 95599.145358 103781.634820 112798.512551 122445.172142 132445.345942 143584.763875
2025-08-24 81998.669330 91919.756139 102323.495689 114024.892497 126796.799280 140291.583591 155605.538315
2025-08-31 76760.715875 88058.264637 100121.021937 113923.153281 129241.188962 145682.976956 164627.348771
2025-09-07 73524.905948 86044.368461 99620.659381 115383.722523 133126.944894 152425.852963 174947.140761
2025-09-14 70499.434739 84009.957954 98867.832458 116347.439720 136272.652172 158201.338909 184080.871357
2025-09-21 67361.656640 81639.935187 97548.587286 116493.944507 138342.433776 162648.393243 191629.135044
2025-09-28 64591.872453 79531.415604 96380.849678 116674.763532 140330.804965 166909.443088 198898.438739
2025-10-05 63073.873601 78782.930009 96696.201314 118491.759270 144143.060589 173218.603848 208504.887693
2025-10-12 61521.511504 77902.142384 96777.859424 119966.690184 147505.864665 178980.962511 217477.889613
2025-10-19 59727.082704 76643.428508 96335.640851 120753.771749 150006.611256 183706.931153 225233.277537
2025-10-26 57695.060208 75010.876789 95370.007145 120845.550335 151624.780543 187357.458725 231705.502865
2025-11-02 55909.066053 73634.640437 94681.269603 121253.024114 153623.653210 191486.603837 238807.420139
2025-11-09 54076.433276 72136.242730 93788.273062 121364.654978 155232.218417 195136.401296 245347.227339
2025-11-16 52976.749835 71508.013473 93924.363106 122704.550658 158313.299781 200549.294916 254022.426602
2025-11-23 51243.887987 70017.185191 92936.067502 122605.250250 159593.135587 203763.854935 260037.710827
2025-11-30 50401.417751 69627.276803 93293.661715 124158.010068 162897.307187 209440.252052 269067.132676
2025-12-07 49363.774033 68946.215371 93251.016503 125181.586283 165528.571493 214293.242319 277109.389315
2025-12-14 47987.468387 67778.934720 92550.246213 125337.219384 167048.182239 217765.921186 283458.915458
2025-12-21 46697.708940 66683.810020 91904.504438 125529.194416 168587.985851 221250.308166 289825.503003
2025-12-28 46230.096307 66657.299629 92621.251375 127457.873868 172326.004306 227480.802674 299634.786587
2026-01-04 45632.858363 66434.506860 93065.226339 129023.223583 175600.490829 233144.739299 308769.208514
2026-01-11 44758.983614 65810.939836 92961.304084 129858.470350 177930.553243 237625.499217 316440.362673